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DS Risk Warning: Weather; Snow

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Hello all,

Not a yellow snow warning but a Yellow Warning of Snow by the Met Office has been issued across our customer area for Tuesday as follows:

Gloucestershire, South Gloucestershire, Bath and North East Somerset, Bristol, North Somerset, Somerset, Swindon, Wiltshire, valid from 0005 Tue 27 Feb to 2355 Tue 27 Feb.

Studying the map that supports the warning the area extends into and includes South Wales to the edge of Swansea with the boundary drawn from there to Liverpool.

A further warning is issued for a lesser area for Wednesday as follows:

Gloucestershire, Somerset, Swindon & Wiltshire valid from 0005 Wed 28 Feb to 2355 Wed 28 Feb.

At this stage there is then a suggestion that Friday may be the next snow event. We'll keep an eye on it and get back to you as things firm up.

I've provided more detail below. From this it will be seen that there are all sorts of variables in play so it is difficult to say what will happen where. As we know a dusting in our larger towns and cities can cause disproportionate disruption and delay, usually due to very variable driving! That dusting can translate to a far more substantial dump on windward facing and higher ground and properly bring usual movement to a halt.

To save looking for it, I've attached again our winter weather advice with slight update editing. Do share and discuss it with your teams and consider options, especially where key people like site managers/caretakers aren't available to think about gritting, draining down vulnerable pipes, etc.

You know we like a smile in the mix, hopefully you have time to watch this quality production?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwKXT6U-oXc


The Warning for Tuesday says:

Snow showers or longer periods of snow are expected on Tuesday. There is the potential for travel delays on roads, with some stranded vehicles and passengers, as well as delays or cancellations to rail and air travel. Some rural communities could become cut off. Power cuts may also occur and other services, such as mobile phones, may be affected. 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Further snow showers are expected through Tuesday, with the potential for a more organised band of snow to push south-west across many parts of England and Wales through the day. There is uncertainty in the extent of snow. However, there is the potential for 5-10 cm of snow in places where showers become more frequent, or in association with the more persistent band of snow. Nearby locations may see much less snow and only small accumulations of 0-2 cm in places. Strong winds will lead to drifting of lying snow, with lightning an additional hazard, particularly near North Sea coasts.

Warning impact matrix

Very
likely
✓
to
Unlikely
Very low
impact		toHigh
impact
The Warning for Wednesday says:
Heavy snow showers are expected on Wednesday. There is the potential for travel delays on roads, with some stranded vehicles and passengers, as well as delays or cancellations to rail and air travel. Some rural communities could become cut off. Power cuts may also occur and other services, such as mobile phones, may be affected. 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Showers will bring a large variation in amounts of snow across even small areas with some places seeing very little snow. There is the potential for 10-15 cm of snow in places where showers become more frequent whilst nearby locations may see much less frequent showers and only small accumulations of 1-3 cm in places. Strong winds will lead to drifting of snow, and lightning could be an additional hazard, particularly near North Sea, Irish Sea and English Channel coasts. By the end of Wednesday, more than 20 cm may have accumulated in places in some eastern counties of England, Scotland and Norther Ireland from a culmination of Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday's snow showers.

Warning impact matrix

Very
likely
✓
to
Unlikely
Very low
impact		toHigh
impact

All the best and thermals on!

Bill

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