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DS Risk Warning; Weather

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Hello all,

The Met Office has updated its Yellow Warnings. First tomorrow's has altered but please note still covers Gloucester and S. Wales through to Wiltshire and Swindon. The M4 might be a dividing line!:

Between 00:05 Tue 27th and 23:55 Tue 27th

Snow showers or longer periods of snow are expected on Tuesday, accompanied by very low temperatures. This update removes much of southwest England, which now looks less likely to be affected. There is the potential for travel delays on roads, with some stranded vehicles and passengers, as well as delays or cancellations to rail and air travel. Some rural communities could become cut off. Power cuts may also occur and other services, such as mobile phones, may be affected.

There is now a warning for Thursday, inconveniently from midday for the whole of our area and travel to work zone. This will be very difficult to call. Greater certainty will emerge tomorrow and Wednesday. Potentially traffic on roads can keep them open as the principal routes will be well gritted. However, if it goes for it, there may be a need to close early and maybe for those with longer travel distances to review their options:B

Between 12:00 Thu 1st and 23:55 Thu 1st

There is potential for a spell of heavy snow, accompanied by strong winds, to move slowly north through Thursday afternoon and night. There is a small chance that long delays and cancellations on bus, rail and air travel could occur. There is a slight chance that roads may become blocked by deep snow, with stranded vehicles and passengers. There is a small chance that long interruptions to power supplies and other services such as telephones, may occur.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A weather system is expected to move slowly north through Thursday into Friday and has potential to produce widespread snow, accompanied by strong to gale force winds. As less cold air follows from the south, there is a small chance of snow turning to freezing rain bringing an additional ice risk. There is still uncertainty in how this system will develop, but there is a small chance of the combined effects of snow, strong winds and ice leading to severe impacts.

Warning impact matrix

Very
likely
✓
to
Unlikely
Very low
impact		toHigh
impact


​Then there's another for Friday for us for our customer area and travel to work. As this is from midnight it may be an easier call, if correct, to wake and decide. Less traffic overnight and snow can mean that the usual best indicator for your decision , ie, public transport, fails to emerge in the morning, and that can for many makes operating impossible:

Between 00:05 Fri 2nd and 18:00 Fri 2nd

There is potential for a spell of heavy snow, accompanied by strong winds, to affect much of Northern Ireland, Wales together with central and southern England on Friday. There is a small chance that long delays and cancellations on bus, rail and air travel could occur. There is a slight chance that roads may become blocked by deep snow, with stranded vehicles and passengers. There is a small chance that long interruptions to power supplies and other services such as telephones, may occur.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A weather system is expected to continue to move north into Friday and has potential to produce widespread snow, accompanied by strong winds. As less cold air follows from the south, there is a chance of snow turning to freezing rain bringing an additional ice risk. There is still uncertainty in how this system will develop but there is a small chance of the combined effects of snow, strong winds and ice leading to severe impacts.

Warning impact matrix

Very
likely
✓
to
Unlikely
Very low
impact		toHigh
impact

​At present the weekend is potentially less cold.

​We'll update as the information comes through.

Bill

​
--
Bill Crocker
Executive Director
Tech IOSH, MEPS, MRICS.

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