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DS Risk Warning: Weather

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Hello all,

The Met office forecast for Thursday into Friday and Friday into Saturday has worsened, as follows, with the majority of our customer and travel to work area now covered by an Amber Warning. On the periphery of the Amber area there's a Yellow Warning.

Amber =  There is an increased likelihood of bad weather affecting you, which could potentially disrupt your plans and possibly cause travel delays, road and rail closures, interruption to power and the potential risk to life and property. Amber means you need to be prepared to change your plans and protect you, your family and community from the impacts of the severe weather based on the forecast from the Met Office

Snow and Ice between Thursday 14:00 and Friday 08:00 hrs.

There is the potential for a spell of snow, moving northwards over southern Britain on Thursday, to intensify and become heavy on Thursday afternoon/evening as it spreads north. As it does so, some places could also see significant ice build up overnight into Friday. This is likely to be accompanied by strengthening easterly winds. Long delays and cancellations to public transport could occur, whilst some roads may become blocked by deep snow, stranding vehicles and passengers. Long interruptions to power supplies and other utilities could occur. 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A weather system is expected to move slowly north through Thursday, intensifying and pushing north across the warning area from Thursday afternoon. As it comes into contact with the very cold air resident over the UK, it has potential to produce widespread snow, accompanied by strong to gale force winds. As less cold air follows from the south, there is a chance of snow turning to freezing rain bringing an additional significant ice risk. There is still uncertainty in how this system will develop, but there is a chance that the combined effects of snow, strong winds and ice will lead to severe impacts.

Warning impact matrix

Very
likely
✓
to
Unlikely
Very low
impact		toHigh
impact
The further detail given is that there is 50% snow fall likelihood commencing at midday and that remains until 18:00 when it increases to 60% and increases further to 70% at 21:00 hrs.

It is fully appreciated this will make your decision on remaining open in the afternoon a difficult matter of judgement.

The warning for the same area for Friday is Yellow, as the warning yesterday for the same area as above.

Between 00:05 Fri 2nd and 23:55 Sat 3rd

There is potential for a spell of heavy snow, accompanied by strong winds at first, to affect much of Northern Ireland, Wales together with central and southern England during Friday, and perhaps further bands of snow following in behind on Saturday. Delays and cancellations to public transport are possible, as are delays to travel on roads; some stranding of vehicles and passengers could also occur. Some rural communities could become cut off. Interruptions to power supplies and mobile phone coverage are also possible.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Further spells of snow could continue to move north through Friday and into Saturday, with the potential to produce widespread snow, accompanied by strong winds - although the winds will tend to ease a little through Friday. This warning has been updated to bring the southern boundary south to reflect uncertainty in the timing of less cold air arriving in the south, which could be delayed, and the possibility for further spells of snow to arrive from the south later. The end time has been extended to the end of Saturday to cater for these too. The northern boundary has also been adjusted north slightly.

Warning impact matrix

Very
likely
✓
to
Unlikely
Very low
impact		toHigh
impact

Advice here remains the same that gritting, ploughing and the lack of overnight traffic may render main routes unusable by the morning with the main indicator of the bus public transport being unable to leave their depots around 06:00 to 06:30 hrs informing your decision on whether to open for the Friday.

There are no warnings for Sunday and Monday when it will be less cold. 

Have you a plan to perhaps reinforce your caretaker/site manager with volunteers who could then turn out on Sunday to prepare your site for successful opening on Monday?

More updates will follow as the Met Office update the above.

Bill

-- 
Bill Crocker
Executive Director
Tech IOSH, MEPS, MRICS.

Tel: 07795 190 130
In Emergency or Critical Incident tel: 07979 425 989. 

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